The past twelve months have certainly been a whirlwind when it comes to real estate, here on the Big Island and across the state. 2021 was indeed quite the banner year for the housing market—but how healthy have some of the other economic sectors of our state been during the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic?
One way to track the health of our island and statewide economies is to take a look at the recently released RevPAR (or revenue per available room) numbers to see what they reveal around Hawai’i’s economic sector. However, as is true for all statistical measures, RevPAR is only as good as the context in which it is being used!
RevPAR is one of the metrics utilized to track hotel and lodging performance in the hospitality industry. It’s quantified by multiplying a hotel’s average daily room rate by its occupancy rate, and can give hotels and other accommodations a better idea as to how they would best price their available rooms. Furthermore, RevPAR is considered one of the overall metrics by which we analyze the state’s overall economic health and well-being—especially here in Hawai’i, which has been heavily impacted by Covid-19 on a multitude of levels.
Per the most available statistics (compiled within the Hawai’i Hotel Performance Report and as published by the Hawai’i Tourism Authority), the state had a RevPAR of $199 in November of 2021—a 277% increase from November of 2020! Of course, while it must be noted that the stats from November of 2020 are skewed due to both falling within the first year of the pandemic and being culled right as the Safe Travels program was launching, the 2021 RevPAR numbers nevertheless would seem to signify an increasing confidence and building sense of growth throughout the Aloha State over the past twelve months.
Having said all that, the November 2021 RevPAR across Hawai’i was still 3.8% lower than November of 2019, showing that there is still plenty of room for recovery and growth as the statewide economy continues to gather steam.
And it’s not just Hawai’i that’s been coming on strong as of late: according to STR, there is a growing national trend of states coming nearer to or even outperforming their 2019 RevPAR averages, with a total of 24 states even outperforming their 2019 tallies altogether.
Looking forward from the national perspective, Commercial Real Estate Services provides the following lodging forecast over the next few years (in RevPAR) for the United States over the next four years:
- 2022: $80.04
- 2023: $86.88
- 2024: $90.73
- 2025: $93.97
It’s fairly safe to assume that this forecast definitely holds true for the Big Island as well, seeing as Hawai’i at-large typically sees a RevPAR that is nearly double the national average, owing to both our desirable location and the sheer number of visitors that we welcome on an annual basis.
So…what’s it all mean?
In a nutshell—so far, so good! We expect our state’s numbers to soon meet and eclipse the RevPAR from 2019 in the coming months, which signifies an increasing return to form for both our island economy and for the industries which it comprises. While change is definitely the rule, and not the exception, when it comes to real estate and our overall economic health, all signs as of now still point towards a steady recovery on the Big Island and across Hawai’i.